Middle East Crisis: Global Food Security at a Crossroads 

• The Persian Gulf conflict highlights the deep interconnections between energy markets, fertiliser supply chains and global agrifood systems 
• US farmers debate viability of costly food crops versus profitable fuel crops  
• To futureproof food security the UN FAO says, “countries should focus on domestic agriculture, sustainable fertiliser production and renewable energy” 

  by Jon Hughes, Editor in Chief, World Biogas Association 

While the price of oil and gas blitzes the global economy, it is the parallel threat to food security that will mean the effects of the war are felt long into the future.  

By making the Strait of Hormuz essentially a no-go area for shipping, Iran has put a chokehold on the trade in fuels and fertilisers. A briefing note from the Office of the Chief Economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (UNFAO) reveals how critical the maritime corridor is to global food and energy security.  

Up until a few weeks ago the strait carried ~20 million barrels of crude oil and refined products per day – roughly one-quarter of global seaborne oil – along with significant volumes of liquefied natural gas and fertiliser exports. 

Production and delivery of nitrogen and ammonia fertiliser have collapsed. In recent years the region – Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman – has accounted for ~30-35% of global urea exports and around 20-30% of ammonia exports. Overall, up to 30 percent of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit the Strait of Hormuz.  

Costs are rising. Around the world the impacts are being felt.  

US farmers are entering the planting season. The big debate, whether to plant nitrogen hungry corn for food or less demanding and more profitable soya bean for fuel? In the UK a farmer speaking on the BBC said he was considering selling fertiliser purchased pre-crisis because he would make more profit than planting and harvesting spring wheat. 

The briefing note says, “early signals in international markets indicate that prices for major food commodities such as wheat, rice and vegetable oils have started to increase”, and notes, “higher oil prices increase the profitability of ethanol and biodiesel production, raising demand for feedstocks such as maize, soybean oil, and palm oil. As a result, volatility in energy markets can rapidly transmit to food markets.” 

Import-dependent countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America are particularly exposed to fertiliser shortages and rising input costs – India, Brazil and China among them. India and Brazil among the world’s leading food producers.  

“Fertiliser shortages and higher energy costs threaten crop yields, while tighter grain supplies could trigger cross-commodity price contagion, further raising food prices in low-income, import-dependent countries,” says the briefing.  

To avoid famine and mass migration the briefing says that the war must end and immediate support needs to be given to farmers to ride out the food crisis it has kick started. Unlike oil, the fertiliser sector does not have internationally coordinated strategic reserves, making supply disruptions more difficult to manage.  

National production is not really an option as gas is the primary feedstock used to produce most nitrogen-based synthetic fertilisers – and the price of gas is up by over 100% since the start of the war.  

Global food security is at a crossroads. The briefing says the world must wake up to the fragility of global food supply chains. To make the global food system more secure it says, “longer-term strategies should focus on domestic agriculture, sustainable fertiliser production, renewable energy and structural adjustments”.  

This echoes the findings of 21st Agricultural Outlook, covering 2025-2034 Issued by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and UNFAO last year, written in the wake of the Ukraine war.  

The uncertainties highlighted in the outlook – particularly around energy and fertiliser input costs – are now being realised, underlining just how exposed agricultural systems remain to external shocks. 

In this context, biogas offers a practical way to strengthen resilience within the farming sector. By providing a stable source of renewable energy alongside locally produced organic fertiliser, it can help reduce reliance on volatile global markets and support more self-sufficient production systems. 

Rather than being a response to any single crisis – although where plants currently exist they should be encouraged to increase energy production to boost fertiliser supplies –  the role of anaerobic digestion and biogas is in building long-term stability, helping to insulate farms from future disruptions while supporting the transition to more sustainable and secure food production. 

When this conflict ends, governments cannot afford to revert to business as usual. Having seen how quickly food systems can be pushed to the brink, countries must act decisively: fertiliser production is not a commodity – it is strategic infrastructure. 

The World Biogas Association calls on policymakers to prioritise domestic, sustainable fertiliser production as a cornerstone of national resilience – reducing exposure to global shocks, strengthening food security and futureproofing agriculture. 

 Resources on natural fertilisers for countries seeking to mitigate the crisis can be freely accessed here. 

Further queries to policysupport@worldbiogasassociation.org