IEA: Global Biomethane Output to More Than Double by 2030, EU to Miss Target
Global biomethane production is set to more than double by 2030, but the EU remains far off its 35 billion bcm ambition, according to the International Energy Agency’s Gas Market Report 2025.
The IEA projects global biomethane output to rise by 11 billion bcm over 2024-2030, reaching around 21 billion bcm by the end of the decade. Growth will be driven by new capacity in Europe and North America, Brazil and India.
Europe’s biomethane production is expected to expand by over 10% annually, hitting 10 billion bcm by 2030. That pace, however, “is nowhere near sufficient” to meet the EU’s non-binding 35 billion bcm/year target, the agency warns.
Biomethane demand has surged in Europe as utilities and industries seek lower-carbon fuels and alternatives to Russian pipeline gas.
In the US, output is forecast to more than double to just over 8 billion bcm by 2030. More than 150 plants are under construction, adding to the 410 already operational, with the transport sector remaining the primary driver under clean-fuel standards.
Brazilian renewable natural gas production is also poised to climb to 1 billion bcm/year by 2030, up from 0.36 billion in mid-2025, despite the country’s vast untapped potential of 125 billion bcm per year in combined biogas and biomethane resources.
A forecast for India is notable by its absence. However, the report notes India [and Brazil] is expected to emerge as fast-growing biomethane producers over the medium term, supported by new policies in recent years.
The IEA is more cautious on e-methane, noting that few projects have reached final investment decision. Overall, low-emission gases are expected to supply less than 1% of global gaseous fuels by 2030.
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