Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 points to significant opportunities for biogas
By Jon Hughes
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and UN Food and Agriculture Organisation has issued its 21st Agricultural Outlook, covering 2025-2034.
The primary purpose of the report is to forecast global supply and demand trends across the food chain, and associated environmental and greenhouse gas emissions’ impact, to help policymakers, industry and stakeholders make informed decisions about food and agriculture over the next decade.
A key focus is emissions reduction technology (ERT). Disappointingly anaerobic digestion and biogas receive only one direct mention, in relation to manure management.
However, biogas production pathways and outputs are captured in the blanket terms biomass and biofuels. Coupled with the report’s modelling of possible fertiliser shortages it offers significant insights for biogas development.
Biogas emissions reduction technology
The overarching message of the report is that ‘Zero Hunger’ can be secured while achieving a reduction in emissions in food production.
The report states, “However, scenario analysis suggests options to eliminate undernourishment and to reduce direct agricultural GHG emissions by 7% below current levels by 2034. Achieving these dual outcomes would require a 15% agricultural productivity increase complemented by widespread adoption of emission-reduction technologies (ERT), while attaining a production level sufficient to eradicate undernourishment globally.”
The sole direct mention of anaerobic digestion and biogas is as an ERT. “Technologies for improved manure management offer another important opportunity for reducing emissions. Anaerobic digesters capture methane from stored manure and convert it into renewable biogas.” Ruminants and other livestock production will account for about 70% of the projected global increase in direct agricultural GHG emissions from agriculture.
It notes that high up-front costs, inadequate infrastructure and a lack of enabling policy frameworks or financial incentives are barriers to adoption.
Yet, where these obstacles exist, primarily in ‘low and middle-income economies’, the report recommends promoting “low-cost, locally adapted practices” such as integrated nutrient and water management, organic matter recycling, improved rotations and cover cropping”.
This succinctly describes many of the positive impacts of biogas adoption. What the report fails to consider is that biogas production would reward (monetise) farmers for many of those action while also reducing input costs across power, transport fuels and fertilisers. Nor does it respect that the technology comes in all different shapes and sizes, from household scale, through micro and modular to full blown merchant class, serving multiple farms within a radius as famously pursued in Denmark.
Furthermore, the Italian biogas done right model and pathways to deployment mapped in WBA’s landmark Global Biogas Regulatory Framework clearly show how biogas can deliver cost-effective rural resilience through enabling regenerative farming.
Waste-based biofuels opportunities
Overall, the report predicts steady growth across sectors (dairy, beef, poultry, crops/cereals and aquaculture) of around 1% annually, with regional variations between developed economies and developing and middle-income economies. India and Brazil are highlighted as high growth areas.
The report also predicts that these two countries and Indonesia will lead the development of biofuels over the period – primarily renewable diesel and ethanol from vegetable oils (such as palm, soyabean and rapeseed) and crops (such as maize and sugar).
However, noting the food versus fuel debate – accentuated by recent price surges in cereal and vegetable oil markets – the report says, “Exploring advanced biofuels presents opportunities beyond conventional crops with cellulosic feedstocks such as agricultural residues and energy crops offering potential for expanded production without compromising food supplies. Waste-based feedstocks such as municipal solid waste and used cooking oil also offer alternatives, providing additional benefits for waste management.”
The report notes that “policies such as the United States Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive III (RED III) have further accelerated the adoption of waste-based feedstocks”.
Digestate and fertiliser concerns
The report forecasts a more intensive use of synthetic fertilisers in middle income countries, with emissions from their use mitigated by the gradual adoption of innovative and improved technologies and capital investments.
The use of synthetic fertilisers will account for about 28% of the projected global increase in direct agricultural GHG emissions. If GHG emissions from fertiliser production were accounted for their reported environmental footprint would be double that.
While the report expects energy prices and therefore fertiliser prices to remain stable over the coming decade, it notes, “Supply shortages of fertilisers are a major concern for many countries not only since the war between the Russian Federation and Ukraine started, but also due to the broader geopolitical uncertainties affecting global trade and commodity markets.”
The potential of biofertiliser (digestate) as a direct replacement – compatible with the reports overarching goals for food production to transition to precision, regenerative farming – is not modelled.
Again, this is disappointing, as the report notes that while direct GHG emissions are a crucial component of Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) environmental footprint, they are not the only factor.
“Incorporating other factors into the sustainability metrics, such as the sector’s impact on water resources, soil health and biodiversity, and its ability to sequester carbon, and promote environmental resilience, would contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of agrienvironmental issues. Such an approach would support analyses of broad-based policy options to address and improve the sector’s environmental footprint beyond just focusing on GHG emissions.”
Known unknowns
Jointly produced by the OECD and FAO, in collaboration with their Members and international commodity organisations, the Agricultural Outlook 2025-34 serves as a forward-looking reference to support evidence-based policy planning. The Outlook uses the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model to ensure consistency and global equilibrium across all market forecasts.
The baseline projections presented in are based on the available historical and assume existing policies remain constant. Because of this the report is caveated with much uncertainty – including environmental, social, geopolitical and economic factors that could cause deviations from baseline projections. In essence weather events, conflict and trade wars.
“As such, the likely impacts of recent developments, including shifts in trade policy and heightened economic uncertainty, have not been incorporated. Should these uncertainties persist or intensify, they may affect global agricultural markets in the medium-term through macroeconomic channels such as inflation, exchange rates, and global growth trajectories.”
Scenarios in the report will be updated in response to events if they prove to cause long-term deviations from the baseline.
Biogas certainty
The report clearly recognises that as an emissions reduction technology AD and biogas has a role to play. The policy and cost barriers to entry it identifies are not insurmountable and indeed countries with large agro-economies like Brazil, India and New Zealand are actively engaged with WBA to explore how its Global Biogas Regulatory Framework can enable this.
Biogas and its outputs – heat or energy, transport fuel, digestate and, where upgraded to biomethane (RNG, CBG), bio-CO2, deliver both the direct and indirect environmental benefits the report emphasises are required in food production.
Given the uncertainties the report highlights, particularly around energy and fertiliser input costs, it could be said that not only is there no net zero without biogas there is no food security without biogas. The panorama the report presents points to significant opportunities for biogas development.