IEA’s 2025 Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has just released its second edition of the Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane, following its first edition in 2020. This global assessment reveals untapped potential that requires urgent attention from global policymakers, industry leaders, and the extended biogas value chain. The World Biogas Association (WBA) provided input and reviewed preliminary drafts of the report, and welcomes its release. At WBA, we have been championing the conversion of organic waste into valuable products, and this new IEA analysis endorses our efforts and advocacy.
A trillion cubic metre opportunity
The IEA’s findings are astounding, in that the report claims ‘Globally, we estimate that nearly 1 trillion cubic metres of natural gas equivalent of biogases could be produced sustainably each year, using today’s organic waste streams. This is equivalent to one-quarter of global natural gas demand today.’ According to the outlook report, the global potential of biogas remains largely untapped. Currently, only 5% of the total sustainable potential for biogas and biomethane production is being utilised. The European Union (EU) leads globally, yet it still harnesses only around 40% of its potential from waste feedstocks. There is considerable room for growth in emerging economies, particularly in China, India and Brazil, where they are still only scratching the surface of what is possible.
The multiple benefits we’ve always known
The IEA report reinforces what WBA has consistently highlighted. Biogas delivers far more than just renewable energy. The co-products that accompany biogas production are also valuable. The production of biogas yields a nutrient-rich by-product known as ‘digestate’, a biofertiliser applied to the land where crops are grown, replacing fossil-borne synthetic chemical fertilisers.
Digestate, a prime example of the circular economy, offers a low-carbon biofertilizer alternative for the agriculture sector. As fertiliser costs continue to rise, driven by natural gas prices, and supply chains remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks, digestate presents farmers with a sustainable, local option that enhances soil health. Remarkably, the report indicates that maximising biogas potential from wastes and utilising the resulting digestate could satisfy approximately 15% of the EU’s and 10% of India’s projected fertiliser needs by 2050.
The case for the Global Biogas Regulatory Framework and AD Certification Scheme International
One of the most important aspects of the IEA report is its candid examination of methane emissions from biogas plants. The evidence presents a concerning scenario: methane leakage from biogas and biomethane plants in Europe is significantly high, with 0.1-2.4% of methane escaping during feedstock handling, 0-12% leaking during biogas production, and an additional 0.2-10% being released during biomethane upgrading.
This is exactly why WBA has consistently advocated for standardisation and has developed the #MakingBiogasHappen (MBH) Programme, encompassing a Global Biogas Regulatory Framework (GBRF) and an Anaerobic Digestion Certification Scheme International (ADCS International) to sustainably scale the industry without compromising safety and environmental performance. It is designed to be adaptable to national and subnational governments, informing policy-making based on best practice, innovative. technologies and high standards.
The good news is that the IEA’s report indicates there are effective methods to reduce fugitive emissions. These include utilising sealed tanks to prevent leaks during the handling of feedstock and digestion, storing digestate in sealed tanks, ensuring upgraders do not emit methane either by burning off gas slip or recycling it back into the upgrader, and implementing robust leak detection and repair programmes throughout the supply chain, all of which are included in modules of the ADCS International.
When these best practices are adhered to, the climate benefits are substantial. The report indicates that if we harnessed the entire global potential from manure, approximately 280 billion cubic metres, we would avert 1,000 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in agriculture, along with an additional 400 million tonnes from substituting fossil fuels in the energy sector.
Economic assessment
The IEA’s cost analysis offers a clear overview of the economic challenges and opportunities facing the biogas industry. On average, biomethane production costs between USD 36/MWh and USD 108/MWh. This is cheaper than the price consumers pay for gas in many regions, yet it remains about five times more expensive than the production of natural gas. Nevertheless, the report indicates that government support and carbon pricing can help bridge this gap. For instance, with a carbon price of USD 50 per tonne (tCO2), 280 billion cubic metres of biomethane could compete with natural gas on a global scale. And whether the carbon price increases by 40% to USD 70 per tonne (tCO2), up to 400 billion cubic metres of biomethane will become a competitive alternative to natural gas globally. Thus, with net-zero targets and carbon pricing systems, this presents a significant growth market, making biomethane a far more appealing option.
Policy support is growing
The report indicates that over 50 new policies have been introduced to support biogas since the IEA’s first special report in 2020. Several countries are developing better policy support for low-carbon fuels, such as biomethane, and although barriers still exist, they can be overcome.
What is occurring in Europe demonstrates what is achievable. In Denmark, for instance, biogases already account for 40% of all gas consumption, and production in France is rapidly increasing. These are not unattainable targets, but rather evidence of what can be realised with effective government policies.
The path forward
At WBA, we’ve always believed that the time has come to spotlight the advantages of anaerobic digestion technologies. This comprehensive IEA analysis provides the global context and evidence base that validates everything we’ve been working towards. We’re talking about enhanced energy security through domestic renewable gas production, sustainable waste management that creates value rather than cost, climate action that delivers measurable emissions reductions, agricultural sustainability through nutrient recycling, and rural economic development with real job creation.
The potential is undeniably there. The technology is proven and ready. The policy tools exist and are being used successfully elsewhere. What’s exciting is that we’re no longer asking “if” this can happen, but “when”. WBA’s work in bringing together industry, government, and communities is making that “when” closer.
The future we have been working towards isn’t just possible. It is within our grasp, and our collective efforts are making it a reality. With your continued support, we can accelerate our sector’s growth and create a future built on security, sustainability and abundance.
For more information, contact our Policy Team at policysupport@worldbiogasassociation.org.
Read the Outlook for Biogas and Biomethane report by IEA.